The trouble in the commercial real estate markets is getting ugly. Speculative-grade debt issuers are bracing for the default rate to hit 12% to 14% by the end of 2009. The current long-term average default rate is 4.5%; and as recently as 2007, it was just under 1%.

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The Coming Wave Of Debt Defaults
http://www.forbes.com/2009/12/08/coming-bond-defaults-leadership-governance-debt.html